My Next Play (CSTR)

[tanner12oz]

got what i was looking for outta CAL (20%)...sold a lil early but no sweat...my next play is drum roll....Coinstar Inc (CSTR)

Coinstar Inc is the company that runs the coin counters you see at grocery stores and also the wildly popular Redbox DVD kiosks.

the 1 year low is 15 and change 12/08
the 1 year high is 38 and change 8/09

currently price is 24 and change....

reasons why im playing this....the $25 dollar price point has been bounced off of 3 times already this year and the same will happen here. the price has slid as of late due to rival blockbuster setting up some kiosks and due to the motion picture companies complaining about CSTR. i dont see blockbuster as a threat...they have a drop in the bucket number of machines compared to redbox and are the walking dead right now for revenue. the issue with the motion picture companies will be resolved in short order also....any new technology VCR, DVD, brick and mortar rentals etc etc has been shunned by the motion picture companies. in due time concessions are made on both sides and things will continue.

the trend downward waterfalled this morning on high volume and then reversed upward...this was the sellers being exhausted moment. today was the reversal... analyst targets are showing between $34.00 and $54.00 on this one. i think theres a quick oversold rally towards $30.00 which would be a quick 20% from these levels....

for the record im in @ 24.65 DYDD

 

[tanner12oz]

the capitulation low in the AM stands....

Motley Fool posted this at the close...

Coinstar's (Nasdaq: CSTR) popular automated machines may add video game discs to their arsenal, if developers play along. Many movie studios have been staunchly opposed to the Redbox rental model -- arguing that cheap rentals are killing retail DVD sales -- but software developers may be more amenable to the Redbox model.
"If you look at movies and music in some ways, resisting new business models has not been a great formula for success," THQ (Nasdaq: THQI) CEO Brian Farrell is quoted as saying in a Reuters article last night. "One of the things I like about our industry is we tend to think, 'We have to adapt to this change.' So it's part of our DNA."
Redbox has been testing out the concept since August, offering up video games for double the DVD rate. It's a slick move, because those $2 daily charges can add up in a hurry.
Video games aren't like movies, of course: You can't consume them in a passive two-hour sitting. It may take several days before a gamer is satisfied enough to set aside a particular title. Yet that could be an advantage. Game rentals may actually stimulate sales, since a hurried renter may return the game quickly to avoid extra daily charges and just go out and purchase the game. If a game is good enough, rentals can only help.
Video games are a logical evolutionary step for Redbox. Now that NCR (NYSE: NCR) and Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) are expanding their realm of competitively priced Blockbuster Express kiosks, Redbox can't simply stay the course.
Blockbuster has been offering DVDs and video games at its stores for ages. Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) has resisted the urge to follow GameFly into rentals, but it may have to if everybody else is hopping on the trend.
The arguments against game rentals are that the titles cost a lot more than movies. Many games also have limited shelf lives, like Electronic Arts' (Nasdaq: ERTS) annually updated EA Sports franchises. However, Redbox has been doing this long enough to know the math. It can stick to stocking its kiosks with titles that can recoup their costs quickly or offer games that will have lasting appeal.
Either way, the games are coming. If other publishers have their heads screwed on straight, like THQ's Farrell, it appears that the studios will be a part of the solution this time.
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[tanner12oz]

not working out that well so far....down over 30% in a lil over a month....way under the 200 dma and the 50 dma....earning report comes out in febuary which will be great but i dont wanna bleed till then....will double down if it gets into the $20-$21 range

 

[tanner12oz]

nice pop today on news...

<!--banner ads --> <!--article body --> <!--breaking news --> <!-- article header, including ads --> Coinstar DVD Kiosk Installations Surpass Projections

Leading redbox Brand Installs One Kiosk Every Hour, 24 Hours a Day, Seven Days a Week

• Press Release
• Source: Coinstar, Inc.
• On 8:30 am EST, Thursday December 10, 2009

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  • Print

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• Companies:
  • Coinstar Inc.

<!-- /.mod.related-companies --> BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR - News) today announced that it now has installed more than 22,210 DVD kiosks, exceeding the company’s guidance for net installations in 2009. In the past six months, the company’s leading DVD kiosk brand redbox has averaged 900 installations per month or more than one kiosk every hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
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<!-- Article Related Media --> “We are delighted with the high retailer and consumer demand for our low-cost, convenient DVD rental service,” said Mitch Lowe, president of redbox. “We’re proud of the relationships we’ve established with the top retailers in the U.S. and we continue to identify viable, high-traffic locations where consumers shop to install redbox kiosks.”
Earlier this year, Coinstar and redbox announced roll-outs with Kroger, Albertson’s LLC and 7-Eleven® stores. In total, redbox kiosks are available at more than 19,000 locations nationwide that include select Walmart, Walgreens, and McDonald’s locations.
Each fully automated redbox kiosk holds 630 DVDs, representing up to 200 of the newest movie releases. Consumers simply use a touch screen to select their favorite movies, swipe a valid credit or debit card and go. Movies can be reserved online at www.redbox.com or via an iPhone and then picked up at a specified redbox location. Customers can keep the DVD for as long as they’d like for a low nightly rental fee, and return it to any redbox location nationwide.

 

[tanner12oz]

BOOM! up 7%

<!--banner ads --> <!--article body --> <!--breaking news --> <!-- article header, including ads --> Paramount Home Entertainment and Redbox Extend Trial License Agreement Through June 2010

Trial License Agreement to Provide Redbox Customers Ongoing Access to Paramount Titles

• Press Release
• Source: Paramount Home Entertainment Inc.; Redbox Automated Retail, LLC
• On 8:45 am EST, Monday December 14, 2009

• • <form method="post" action="http://buzz.yahoo.com/vote/" class="buzz" id="media-buzz-top"> <input name="publisherurn" value="y_finance" type="hidden"> <input name="guid" value="yahoo_finance/2895681276" type="hidden"> <input name=".done" value="/article/y_finance/yahoo_finance/2895681276" type="hidden"> <input name="assettype" value="article" type="hidden"> <input name="votetype" value="1" type="hidden"> <input name="from" value="orion" type="hidden"> <input name="key" value="6ed14" type="hidden"> <input name=".crumb" value="F.ZhGwXhO6z" type="hidden"> <button type="submit">Buzz up! 0</button> </form>
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• Companies:
  • Coinstar Inc.
  • Viacom Inc Cl A

<!-- /.mod.related-companies --> HOLLYWOOD, Calif., Dec. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- Paramount Home Entertainment Inc. (PHE) and Redbox Automated Retail, LLC (redbox), today announced that the companies will continue their relationship through at least June 30, 2010, lengthening the timeframe that Paramount has to extend the agreement through December 2014. This extension to the trial license agreement ensures redbox customers continued access to new release titles from PHE, including such high profile films as Up in the Air and The Lovely Bones.
"We are enjoying our business relationship with redbox and the data from our initial trial period has been encouraging," said Dennis Maguire, Worldwide President of Paramount Home Entertainment. "We are extending the time period that we have to exercise our option in order to give us more time to assess the long-term potential of this business relationship."
Redbox and PHE first signed the trial license agreement in August 2009, with redbox agreeing to provide PHE with PHE rental data to evaluate the potential benefits of a lengthier contract. The extension provides redbox customers with access to new release DVD titles from PHE on the day of release until June 30, 2010. In exchange, redbox agrees to destroy PHE titles once the product is removed from kiosks.
"The extension marks another positive step forward in our relationship with Paramount Home Entertainment," said Mitch Lowe, President, redbox. "This agreement provides our customers with access to Paramount titles the day of release at the more than 19,000 redbox locations nationwide and underscores our commitment to working with the industry."
If Paramount exercises the option, the agreement with redbox will run through December 2014 and contains an early termination right at PHE's discretion in December 2011.

 

[tanner12oz]

with every movie company that folds to redbox the pressure mounts for the holdouts....

up 3% again today...

over 10% on the investment so far...$30 bucks is an easy target

 

[tiznow]

probably will be an okay play for the longer term and in a gloomy environment in general

they along with netflix will eventually bankrupt blockbuster and alot of mom and pop movie shops

netflix and redbox will be the main 2 dominant players on the movie rental front going forward

blockbuster management just horrible they always behind the curve trying to play catchup

same thing happened with netflix...and now happening again with redbox

 

[kuwlness]

Cramer likes it and recommended them a while ago ... then they did the stock offering and gave everyone a chance to buy again cheaply.

I think you'll have a long-term winner, just dont know about how much of a % ROI you'll be looking at with CSTR. Might wanna stick with some up-listed China stuff that have more distinct revenue & EPS projections -- TSTC, YONG, and YUII being my favorites.


I'd recommend you start selling in the low $31s ... seems to be resistance there. Could over-shoot and hit $35ish, but I wouldnt own much after $35. JMO, GL on your trade.

 

[tanner12oz]

yeah i planned on starting to unload ones we start seeing 30's. i like buying oversold stuff and just riding the quick bounce back to fair value. its pretty easy to spot with some decent charts

 

[tanner12oz]

got an upgrade today....the march to the 30's continues....theres zero volume on the market this week.

05:54 EDT Coinstar initiated with a Buy at Global Hunter
Global Hunter believes Coinstar has solid financials and is well positioned to grow despite the weak consumer environment. Target $45.

 

[tanner12oz]

earnings report on feb 11....i expect blowout numbers and guidance...

 

[snoop]

4q came in line with estimate, it got 7% hair cut AH.

 

[tanner12oz]

holding my breath tomorrow morning light volume AH distorts things pretty often. cstr is renting TONS of dvds lots of growth still going forward

 

[tiznow]

you hang on to this guy tanner?

been doing great

looks overdone near term though and has a big gap staring it in the face....

i'm a huge fan of the redbox stuff

guessing it'll probably pull back to the high 30s to fill that gap along with all the gloom and doom that is slowly starting to evolve....

 

[tiznow]

NCR might be another one to keep your eyes on for down the road after we get a good market haircut

they starting to move in on CSTR making blockbuster kiosks

and i think a potential possibility will be NCR takeover of BBI, shut down most if not all the retail stores and just use the well known name of blockbuster for its online and kiosk business

the traditional movie rental outlets completely toast for most part

 

[tanner12oz]

nah i sold CSTR waaaaay to early...made 20% on it but its been a triple from where i bought it...whatever CAL and JADA both did the same thing. i got burned last year holding something for to long and giving back a few 100% now a start getting nervous and try to lock in the gains...damned if ya do damned if ya dont

 

[tiznow]

well with CSTR you at least were behind a good company with good future prospects

CAL and JADA just junk spec plays